The Capology of Peyton and the Jets: Why they stuck with Sanchez

During my lunch today I decided to do some research- specifically, what the hell the Jets salary cap looked like this year.  This was done in the hopes of finding out if the Jets could financially afford to sign good old #18.  Not to my surprise, they are pretty tight against the cap this year- but workable. It confirmed with an incentive laden deal the Jets could pretty much add Manning, but not much else without a major change on the roster.  The information I used in writing this was gathered from nyjetscap, an excellent website you should visit if you are a football dork like me.
However, what I did not expect was quite surprising and revealing.  Once I began digging deeper, I came to the conclusion that the decision to pursue Peyton has implications that will take hold over the next few years, and really define the franchise.  2012 will either be a year in which the Jets go for it all, or a year in which they begin to rebuild.  They must decide if they think the veterans on the roster have it in them for another run to the Super Bowl, or if they have already peaked.  Rex Ryan must decide if he will fire down more pretzel M&Ms, or snack on carrots so he can live long enough to see through the retooling project set to begin next year.  In 2013, the salary cap situation changes drastically.  The Jets all of a sudden are projected to be way over the cap, although it is not as bad a thing as one might imagine.  This year's situation is terrible for many reasons. Follow the money with me for a moment, in the following bullet points, discussing the 2012 cap:

• The team currently has just under $8,000,000 in salary cap space.  This does not include current free agents like Sione Pouha, LT, Him Leonhard or the restricted Aaron Maybin.
• If the team cut such illuminaries as Santonio Holmes ($11million cap hit) and Bart Scott ($1.25 million cap hit) they would be OVER the salary cap.   Pretty much they are better suited playing a giant cry baby and an over the hill guy this year then they are to cut them.  Can't Wait!
• This also extends to Calvin Pace, who would bring a $1.75 million cap hit. For those of you who don't watch the games, Calvin Pace pretty much sucks.  In the past two years he has counted for over $13 million against the cap and has produced nine sacks.  He also doesn't ever really make any big plays.  I'd pretty much rather run Aaron Maybin out there and see if he can continue to develop.
• Even though we haven't heard much about dumping him, cutting the overrated, afraid of Tim Tebow, Antonio Cromartie would result in a $9.25 million cap hit.  Maybe we can trade for Tebow and have him scare off Cromartie and his nine children.  This would of course require Antonio to remember the name of all of his children, therefore is very unlikely.
• Cutting Eric Smith would save the team 2 million.  Is Eric Smith worth 2 mil?  Probably not, but at least he occasionally makes a big hit.  Wait till the 2013 scenario to find out why they should keep him.
• Mark Sanchez would pretty much have to go in order to sign Peyton- the Jets would save just over $9,000,000 on this years cap.
• Cutting Brandon Moore saves $3 million.  He is solid, but not great.  Matt Slauson getting cut saves $572,000.  The only negative is if one of these guys goes, it is either a high draft pick on a guard, or the Vlad Ducasse ($175,000 cap hit if he is cut) era is in full effect.  Run whoever is playing QB-- and I mean for your life.

After thinking about the cap situation, I arrived at one simple conclusion.  The Jets need to go all in, or pull away from the table.  Chasing Manning means that the Jets would have to cut Sanchez.  I searched up and down the roster and it is really the only way to be able to bring back our key free agents, and maybe add a halfway decent receiver.  Cutting Sanchez means that our fortunes are tied to Peyton, especially because a high draft picks would have to be used to fill holes, not a development QB.  This would also mean putting our faith in the veterans above to return to some kind of form, and play well.  It would mean that the team pretty much had to win a Super Bowl next year, or the franchise would be set back several years- like, Rick Kotite era years.
On the other hand, if they Jets do not add Manning, and play with what they have this year, the 2013 off season becomes much more interesting.  The key cap notes:

• Cutting Santonio Holmes saves $1.25 against the cap.  This would clearly be his biggest play as a Jet.
• Cutting Anotonio Cromartie save $1.25 million.
• Cutting the immortal Calvin Pace ($8.5 million) and Bart Scott ($7.15 million) clears a ton of cap room.
• Getting rid of a guy who can't remember the snap count, Vlad Ducasse would save $165,000.  I would cut him for the simple reason that he isn't a Russian and is named Vladimir.
• Dumping the coverage impaired Eric Smith would save $3 million.
• Wayne Hunter has a $4 cap number.  Wayne Hunter.  Does he get paid a dollar for each sack and false start?
• Total cap savings for getting rid of this dead wood:  Just about $25 million dollars.

Take not with the Sanchez extension I do not know what the cap implications are, as of yet.  However, if they had cut him in 2013 it would have saved $6 million.  I'm not sure how his extension is structured, but if they didn't give him much guaranteed money in the contract, which I hope to God they didn't, they will be about $27 million under the cap.  This will give them great flexibility moving forward.

Final Thoughts:  I think the Jets came to an important realization this year.  That if their veterans do not rebound, which I don't think will happen, they are staring down the barrel of a rebuilding project.  By signing Sanchez, they are trying to create a sense of stability in the organization.  However, I do think they left wiggle room in the deal- ala the Peyton $28 million bonus- which will let them get away from Sanchez if he doesn't improve.  The real proof will be in what they do in the draft- if they make a move for a QB, and I increasingly think they may make a move for a guy like Tannehill, they will remake the franchise.  This year did become an all-in year for the Jets, just with Sanchez instead of Manning.  If they fall flat on their faces I think we will be in for major changes.  The good news is that if they do, 2013 will allow them to get rid of the dead weight, and put them in a great position for 2014, when the salary cap is expected to increase greatly because of the new T.V. contracts. I'm in the odd position of secretly hoping the Jets kind of suck this year, so we can hopefully remake the franchise in the right way for once.  This means getting rid of Rex, who will have worn out his welcome by the end of next year, dumping Mr. T (the Christmas tree for you German speakers), and bringing in a management team that knows what the hell their doing.  Remember, this is a team that hasn't had a good draft in quite a while, and I mean you Vernon Gholston.  

Just keep in mind that this is an all in year for the Jets, and the guy calling the shots won't be Peyton, but rather Mark Sanchez.  Obviously, its time for some more ground and pound.  As I write this I talk myself into Trent Richardson slipping to the Jets, and a the veterans rebounding.  Sometimes I hate being a Jets fan.   Sarah and I may be in for a very dark fall.  Winter is coming!